Trade surprise for SA

South Africa recorded a surprise trade surplus of R457.8m for its trade with non-Southern African Customs Union trading partners in March after a R5.5bn deficit (revised from R5.7bn) in February, according to Customs & Excise figures released on Friday. A R2.5bn deficit had been expected, a survey by I-Net Bridge found.

A record R17.4bn deficit was set in January 2009, but a few surprise surpluses have been registered since then. But no surplus was expected in March as companies build up their inventories ahead of the 2010 Fifa World Cup, which starts in June.

Forecasts among the leading economists surveyed varied from a R6.5bn deficit to a R1.5bn deficit. One of the economists in the survey felt that upside on exports would be limited, while imports would pick up from the previous month on seasonal restocking.

Dawie Roodt, economist at Efficient Group, said: "A bit of a surprise. It's a volatile number so it doesn't really mean anything on a monthly basis. My suspicion is we are still going to have a significant current account deficit. This will probably be on the back of rising commodity prices and corporate dividend outflows."

Chief Citigroup economist Jean Mercier said: "The surplus trade balance figure took me off guard, I had anticipated R2.3bn deficit. This bodes well for SA's current account deficit, as it would seem that exports picked up faster than the previous months."

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